Press reports of the wafer-thin reduction in the NHS waiting list in England were divided, with some reports buying the NHS England interpretation that the numbers had reduced for the “fifth month in a row.”
However others were more nuanced. Business news from Bloomberg reported “NHS Waiting Lists Decline, But Still Fall Short of Sunak Promise,” and noted that the 7.2 million on the waiting list when Rishi Sunak promised to cut them has risen to 7.54m according to the most recent figures.
Other reports, including Full Fact and even the Conservatives’ house journal the Daily Telegraph picked up on the less publicised reality, headlining: “NHS waiting list falls again – but only after thousands excluded from data.”
Full Fact reported the waiting list was “effectively stable in February,” and tells us why:
“As a statistical notice from NHS England explains: ‘Analysis indicates that about 36,000 … pathways [cases where someone is awaiting treatment] have been excluded from the February figures.’
“And as it happens, the figure for the waiting list at the end of February fell by 36,198.
“As a result, it’s possible that if the waiting list had been counted in the same way as before, it would have been very slightly higher or lower than it was in January.”
The Telegraph is more critical: “The list fell by 36,100 to 7.54 million as of the end of February, but only because people waiting for an appointment in a community service were not counted. These 36,100 people, including those waiting for appointments with physiotherapists, mental health specialists and podiatrists, face some of the longest waits of all.”
The feeble month by month reductions prior to the latest dodgy statistics suggest a very long timescale for reducing the waiting list to the 2010 level (2.34 million) when austerity spending limits began to drag back NHS performance.
At the recent average rate of reduction since the waiting list peaked at 7.77m (45771 per month) it would take 9.5 years to get back to the level David Cameron’s government inherited. In February 2010 95% of patients were being treated within 23.5 weeks: 14 years later that has risen to 68.7 weeks. Just 657 people had waited over a year in February 2010: in February 2024 that number had rocketed to an astonishing 40,381.
But for some more vulnerable patients today’s waiting times are even more worrying. The Guardian flagged up the five-fold increase in numbers waiting over 18 weeks for heart treatment, and a third successive month in which the waiting list for heart care increased, with February’s 408,548 total close to double the 233,000 four years earlier in February 2020.
The Guardian quotes Dr Sonya Babu-Narayan, a consultant cardiologist and associate medical director at the British Heart Foundation, warning:
“Long waits put people’s lives on the line. Not getting the right heart test, treatment or surgery at the right time could lead to an avoidable heart attack, incurable heart failure, or even someone dying prematurely.”
The queues for other specialist services have also increased sharply, with urology waiting lists up 70%, neurology up 68%, and general surgery up 30%: even ophthalmology, which has experienced the greatest expansion in use of private providers has seen the lists waiting for operations rise by 38% since February 2020.
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