More than two months on from the government’s announcement in the spring statement that they would continue with and intensify the previous (Tory) government’s attacks on disability benefits, and the subsequent publication of Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall’s Pathways to Work green paper, proposing a £4.5 billion cut in Personal Independence Payments (PIP), there is no sign of any easing in widespread anger.
This latest move to cut welfare benefits, following on Labour’s widely unpopular decisions to end winter fuel payment to millions of pensioners, and not to lift the Tory government’s arbitrary 2-child cap on Universal Credit seem to have cost Labour heavily in the recent council elections and the Runcorn by-election.
While Keir Starmer seems now to be indicating there might be some retreat over winter fuel, Liz Kendall has again doubled down on the benefit cuts which have now been criticised by nine leading disability charities, and https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/welfare-labour-starmer-kendall-pip-b2754996.html
And following this widespread popular thumbs-down there are signs this issue could even provoke a significant parliamentary challenge by angry Labour MPs, although not yet on the scale required to undermine the Starmer government’s majority, especially given that the changes only affect England and Wales. The Independent reports 42 Labour MPs have signed a letter stating that the cuts are “impossible” to support; but 100 (a quarter of the PLP) have now signed a second letter urging ministers to scale back welfare cuts.
Anger has been increased by a Treasury minister’s flippant attempt to minimise the scale of the cuts by comparing the benefits to children taking a Saturday job to augment their pocket money.
Moreover DWP ministers have refused to answer, or have given misleading and irrelevant answers to clear questions on the scale and impact of the disability benefit cuts, which are to be implemented by restricting eligibility to PIP payments to those with the most severe needs.
The Labour plan is that from November 2026 PIP claimants would not be eligible for the daily living component unless they score 4 points or more in at least one activity. But a Freedom of Information request has uncovered DWP figures showing this would affect 1.3 million people: 87% of claimants (1.1 million people) currently receiving PIP daily living component at the standard rate, and 13% of claimants receiving the enhanced rate (another 209,000 people) scored less than 4 on all ten daily living activities, and would therefore lose their entitlement if the “score 4” changes go ahead.
Now new figures first published in the (£)Times reveal that more than three-quarters of those PIP for conditions including arthritis and back pain would lose their benefits in Kendall’s cutbacks.
And despite attempts by ministers and the DWP to justify the cutbacks by blaming the growth in numbers of claimants on younger people with mental health issues and ADHD, the two quickest-growing categories, less than half of those claiming for depression and anxiety will be affected, and just one in five of those claiming for ADHD.
Instead the cuts disproportionately hit older people (more than half of claimants over 40 will lose payments, compared with around a quarter of those in their 20s) and women. Also caught in the crossfire will be around a third of people with cancer, half of people with multiple sclerosis and a quarter of those who have cerebral palsy.
Bizarrely, Labour’s planned cuts would also fall most heavily Labour’s own supporters, with Labour-held constituencies taking 92 of the top 100 biggest losers places, with the North East and North West hardest hit. Even Liz Kendall’s own local Labour party, Leeds West and Pudsey CLP has rejected her “reforms” and is writing to the Chancellor to oppose the changes.
Office of Budget Responsibility figures show the government is planning for a net reduction in benefits to PIP recipients (after other changes) of £6.7 billion by 2029/30.
PIP is not an out-of-work benefit. It can be claimed by disabled people who are in or out of work. So government claims that the losses these claimants would face would in some way be reduced by plans to invest in supporting disabled people into work just don’t stand up to scrutiny.
It doesn’t require a genius to realise that stripping hundreds of thousands of disabled individuals of benefits intended to enable them to live independently is almost certain to lead to many of them becoming more dependent—on already overburdened NHS and social care services.
The Disability Policy Centre (DPC) think tank has published analysis forecasting that the government’s cuts would lead to £1.2bn of extra costs for the NHS and social care services.
“For every pound that someone loses in benefits, you know that – if a council has to step in to cover the shortfall – it’s about £1.50 additional impact,” Arun Veerappan, the Disability Policy Centre’s interim director of research, told the Guardian.
Social care, already battered by tight-fisted spending limits and by government plans to end the visas that allow care workers in through tightening immigration restrictions, would face further pressures. The DPC points out that the “daily living” or “care” element of people’s Pip payments is often – and controversially – used by councils to fund their care provision. If they lose these, councils will have to meet more of the costs themselves.
The Guardian notes “Scoring a four is a high bar. Needing prompting to prepare food, help with showering or washing and dressing the lower body, and needing help to engage with others are all measures that score below a four.”
The scope for unintended consequences and unexpected costs is wide. The potential cost to the NHS from cutting PIP benefits could arise in several ways:
- Increased A&E Visits – Many disabled individuals rely on PIP to manage their conditions, and without financial support, they may delay seeking care until their health deteriorates, leading to increased emergency admissions.
- Greater Demand for Mental Health Services – The stress of losing financial support is likely to exacerbate mental health problems, increasing demand for already over-stretched NHS therapy and psychiatric care.
- Higher Costs for Long-Term Care – Some individuals who have been using PIP to pay for personal carers or mobility aids may not be able to afford these to continue, and require more intensive NHS and social care interventions.
- Strain on GP Services – More frequent GP visits may occur as people struggle to manage their conditions without PIP-funded support, increasing pressure on primary care.
The DPC has warned that in the likely “all pain and no gain scenario”, on its calculations, based on the experience of previous attempts to cut spending on disability benefits going back to 2016, the current government’s welfare reforms are likely to deliver savings of just £100m by 2030 – just 2 percent of the £5 billion claimed by the Government.
Analysis from the New Economics Foundation warns that the cuts will hit ill and disabled people by almost £2bn more than the reported figures, and could see around 100,000 additional people pushed into poverty.
It analyses the DWP impact assessment, which predicts that changes to PIP entitlement rules would hit just 800,000 people by 2029:
“we expect 370,000 current recipients to lose entitlement (when they have an award review) and 430,000 future PIP recipients who do not get the PIP they would otherwise have been entitled. The average loss is £4,500 per year.”
Another DWP report, belatedly published after being suppressed by a succession of DWP secretaries since 2022, shoots down many of the false claims about how easy it is to get PIP payments, the extent to which claimants are encouraged to do so by social media, and any notion that social media somehow coaches claimants in how to ensure their claims are successful.
The report, Triggers to Claiming Personal Independence Payment, shows a very different picture of nervous claimants, fearful that an unsuccessful application could make their lives worse – and many applicants being persuaded to do so by staff at Job Centres, staff handling Universal Credit, and from the government’s own website.
Meanwhile, another report, this time from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), has calculated that more than half of the increase in claims for disability benefits since 2019 (around 500,000 of the additional claims) is due to mental ill-health:
“1.3 million people claim disability benefits primarily for mental health or behavioural conditions – 44% of all claimants. A recent DWP survey suggests 86% of incapacity and disability benefit claimants report having a mental health condition (even if it is not their primary condition).”
The proportion of claimants for whom mental health issues were the main condition rose from 25% in 2002 to 40% by 2019 and has accelerated further since COVID-19: by 2024,it had reached 44% (3.3% of the working-age population).
“36% more people were in contact with mental health services in 2024 than in 2019 …. Overall, 2 million people (0.6 million children and 1.4 million adults) were in contact with mental health services at the end of December 2024.”
This is why underfunded and understaffed NHS systems are under strain. However, delays in accessing mental health care, for which there is no equivalent of the “waiting list” for elective surgery, are notorious and growing: it is likely that the cuts to PIP eligibility will increase this pressure and the delays.
Brian Dow, deputy chief executive of Rethink Mental Illness, told the Guardian: “Mental health services are struggling to meet growing demand, with long waits leading to suicide attempts, A&E visits, and the loss of livelihoods.
“Growth won’t come from slashing benefits for the most unwell or cutting essential services – it comes from improving access to timely mental health treatment.”
It’s hard to see any way in which the benefit cuts that make people more dependent could possibly assist Wes Streeting in his quest to turn the NHS from treatment to prevention.
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